基于压力-状态-响应的熵权-物元水生态文明评价模型
Evaluation model of water ecological civilization based on pressure-state-response matter element model
摘要 为了对区域水生态文明水平进行评价,针对目前水生态文明评价存在的问题,探讨水生态文明的内涵和评价方法.运用压力-状态-响应模型(press-state-response,PSR)提出由3类要素20种指标所组成的水生态文明评价指标体系;利用客观的熵权法求指标权重,减少了人为主观性对评价结果的干扰;利用物元分析方法有效解决了评价指标的模糊性和不相容性等问题,通过构造水生态文明的经典物元和节域物元,分析各个指标对应评价等级的关联度,构建了基于PSR的熵权-物元水生态文明综合评判模型.以济南市南部郊区为例进行研究,求得2010、2013、2015年水生态文明评价结果并对指标进行灵敏度分析,结果表明济南郊区水生态文明水平总体在逐渐提升,但水生态系统的压力没有明显减小,减少氨氮和化学需氧量污染物的排放是提升当地水生态文明水平的关键措施.该文模型能够揭示水生态文明现实状态和存在的问题,评价方法可供类似区域开展水生态文明评价参考.
Abstract:
The establishment of a suitable model for evaluating water ecological civilization plays an important role in researching the relationship between the water ecosystem and human social activities.As the water ecological civilization is a vague concept,quantitative evaluation is crucial for the water ecological civilization evaluation.In order to evaluate the level of regional water ecological civilization,the connotation and evaluation methods of water ecological civilization were discussed based on pressure state response (PSR) model.Water ecological civilization evaluation index system was proposed which consisted of 3 elements and 20 indicators.Index weight was determined by the entropy method to reduce the interference of human subjectivity on the evaluation results.The matter element theory was adopted to analyze and solve the fuzziness and incompatibility of the evaluation index by constructing the classical matter element and the section matter element of the water ecological civilization.The correlation of each index and evaluation grades were analyzed.The comprehensive evaluation model of the entropy weight based on PSR was built.The model can reveal the real state of water ecological civilization and the existing problems.Combined with the model and the collected data,the water ecological civilization evaluation results of the suburbs in Jinan city in 2010,2013 and 2015 were calculated.In order to discuss the sensitivity of the index value,the sensitivity of the evaluation index to the judgement grade was analyzed.The index data of 2015 was used as the reference value.A certain value of each index was increased or decreased (respectively-5%,-10%,+5%,+10%) while other indicators remained unchanged.Then the grade of regional water ecological civilization evaluation was observed.The results showed the grade of the indexes including GDP water consumption,the standard rate of water functional zone and the degree of soil erosion were increasing rapidly.It meant that that this region was in continuous improvement in terms of the water resources utilization efficiency,water quality protection and water ecological restoration from 2010 to 2015.The index of COD emission per unit area decreased to a bad grade,indicating that industrial wastewater discharge in research region still need to be controlled in 2013 and 2015.The centralized sewage treatment rate reached an excellent grade in 2015.It indicated that the sewage treatment capacity of the study area was high enough,which played an important role in enhancing the local water quality.The water ecological civilization of research region in the overall level increased gradually.The ability of human beings to protect the water ecosystem was greatly improved.The health of the water ecosystem was enhanced.Reducing ammonia and COD emissions of pollutants is a key measure to improve local ecological civilization water level.The indexes including COD emission per unit area,ammonia nitrogen emissions per unit area and the standard rate of water functional zone were more sensitive.The indexes including the proportion of wetland area,the grade of soil erosion,water efficiency of irrigation,the increase of constructed wetland area and the proportion of ecological water utilization were sensitive relatively.The evaluation index system of water ecological civilization built base on press-state-response model was comprehensive and logical.It was suitable for evaluation of water ecological civilization.Using the entropy weighted matter-element model could not only determine the overall status and stability evaluation of the object for the water ecological civilization evaluation,but also reveal the single evaluation index information.The method solved the problems of subjective uncertainty and non quantization caused by water ecological civilization concept.The water ecological civilization evaluation method can be used as reference for similar areas.
Author: Liu Chang Feng Baoping Zhang Zhanyu Huang Jiwen Wu Dong
作者单位: 河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098;河海大学南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室,南京210098 山东省水利科学研究院,济南,250013
刊 名 农业工程学报 ISTICEIPKU
年,卷(期): 2017, 33(16)
分类号: TV213
在线出版日期: 2017年12月6日
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目,山东省水生态文明试点科技支撑计划