水上交通事故人因可靠性定量评价方法
Quantitative Method to Human Reliability Assessment for Maritime Accident
摘要 水上交通事故人因可靠性,一方面在风险预防阶段会受到风险水平的影响;另一方面,在险情发展及应对过程中会存在与外部影响因素的相互作用。因此,为全面评价水上交通事故人因可靠性,从风险预防和险情应对这两个角度,提出了基于风险系数和置信度的人因可靠性的定量评价方法。首先,利用三角模糊数分别建立了各风险要素和风险系数的评价标准,并应用证据理论对这3个风险要素进行融合,获取了该险情的风险系数。其次,引用人因交互模型全面分析了人因可靠性的影响因素,建立了人因可靠性检查表,并利用置信度建立了各影响因素定量评价模型。最后,选取了一起典型沉船事故为案例定量评价了人因可靠性,结果表明,本文提出的方法可以更为全面地分析人因可靠性。
Abstract:
Human reliability, on one hand, is influenced by the risk level in the stage of risk mitigation;on the other hand, is affected by the influencing factors in the stages of emergency response. Therefore, in order to make comprehensive assessment on human reliability, the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and belief degree are introduced in human reliability quantification from the perspective of both risk mitigation and emergency response. First, the evaluation criteria for risk factors and risk priority number is established by using triangular fuzzy numbers, and the risk factors are integrated by using evidential reasoning method, from which the risk priority number is obtained. Second, human factors interaction model is introduced to quantify all the influencing factors of human reliability. Moreover, the checklists of human factors are established, and the model for human reliability assessment is developed by using belief degree. Finally, a typical sinking accident is selected to verify the proposed model. The result demonstrates that the proposed method can make a comprehensive assessment on human reliability.
Author: WU Bing YAN Xin-ping WANG Yang WEI Xiao-yang
作者单位: 武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉430063; 武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063; 武汉理工大学水路公路交通安全控制与装备教育部工程技术研究中心,武汉430063
年,卷(期): 2016, 16(4)
分类号: U698.6
机标分类号: V2 X93
在线出版日期: 2016年9月8日
基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划/Key Project in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(2015BAG20B05);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金/Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China