基于支持向量机 MIV值的水路运输货运量影响因素识别
Influence Factors Identification of Waterway Transportation Freight Volume Based on MIV of SVM
摘要 客观识别水路运输主要影响因素是科学预测水路运输货运量的先行工作,传统的统计学、计量经济学研究方法具有严格的统计假设,在一定程度上限制了分析方法的使用。文中把MIV值引入到支持向量机回归模型,以福建省水路运输货运量影响因素识别为实证研究,并利用识别的影响因素对水路运输货运量进行模拟预测,结果表明,总体的相对误差为2.85%,精度较高,该方法有助于识别水路运输货运量的主要影响因素,对于识别此类经济变量的主要影响因素具有借鉴意义。
Abstract:
Identify the main factors objectively that influence the waterway transportation is the preceding activities of predicting scientifically the waterway transportation freight volume.There are strict statistical assumptions in the traditional statistics and econometrics.To some extent,they limit the use of analysis method.Introduce the MIV value into the support vector machines regression model,and make the identification of influence factors of waterway transportation freight volume in Fujian Province as the empirical research,then utilize the data of influence factors to simulate and forecast the waterway transportation freight volume.The results show that the overall relative error is 2.85%, which has high accuracy, and the method helps to identify main factors that influence the waterway transportation freight volume.For identifying the main influence factor of such economic variables,the method has reference meanings.
作者: 陈东清 黄章树
Author: CHEN Dong-qing HUANG Zhang-shu
作者单位: 福州大学至诚学院,福建 福州,350002 福州大学经济与管理学院,福建 福州,350108
年,卷(期): 2015, (7)
分类号: U695.2
机标分类号: F83 F22
基金项目: 福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(社科A类)