人的失误模型在船舶溢油事故应急中的应用分析
Applications of Human Error Analysis Model in Ship Oil-spill Accident Emergency Response
摘要 船舶溢油事故应急是一个由人、机、组织设施所组成的复杂的动态系统.近年来,针对设施、组织可靠性之评估及优化研究较多,然对应急事件与人的可靠性研究,尚处空白状态.任何忽视人的因素,对应急系统整体可靠性的优化与改善都将受到不利影响.当前,船舶溢油事故不仅使财产损失、人员伤亡,且对人类赖于生存之环境造成严重污染.因此,已引起各国海事机构的高度重视.为提高船舶溢油应急过程的可靠性,基于船舶溢油事故应急特点,结合认知心理学和人的可靠性分析技术建立了应急系统的人的失误模型.从而,定性分析了应急过程中可能发生的三类人误:感知失误、决策失误和行动失误,以及外部环境因素、组织因素、自身因素、人机匹配等人误致因.在此基础上,选取大连港一起极具代表性船舶溢油事故,应用人的可靠性分析技术中的CREAM模型计算得到人误致因与人误之间的相关性.为船舶应急中的人因失误研究进行初步探索.
Abstract:
Emergency response for ship oil-spill accident should be regarded as a dynamic complex system consisting of human, machine and organization. Recently the reliability evaluation and optimization of machine and organization in emergency response attached much attention, but the human reliability was ignored in the research. This igno-rance will negatively affect the reliability of the whole emergency response system. Ship oil-spill accident not only leads to heave losses of money and human lives, but also produces serious environmental pollutions. Consequently more and more international maritime institutions have attached highly importance to it. In an attempt to improve the reliability of emergency response for ship oil-spill accident, a human error analysis model was developed considering features of ship oil-spill accident. The model was developed on a theoretical basis with reference to cognitive psychology and HRA. It analyzed three types of human errors including cognitive error, decisive error and act error and four types factors causing human error including external environment, organization, operator own factor and human-machine interface. Finally an example of ineffective oil-ship accident emergency re-sponse has been analyzed with CREAM ( Cognitive reliability and error analysis method), a classical second genera-tion HRA methods, in order to test the feasibility and efficiency of HRA model.
作者: 张欣
Author: ZHANG Xin
作者单位: 上海海事大学,交通运输学院,上海,200135
刊 名 中国航海 ISTICPKU
年,卷(期): 2008, 31(4)
分类号: C931.2 U695
机标分类号: TP3 X9
在线出版日期: 2009年3月10日
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金