河西走廊冰川变化对流域水资源的影响及未来情景预估
The impact of glacier changes on basin water resources in the Hexi Corridor and future scenario projection
摘要
[目的]在全球变暖背景下,祁连山冰川持续退缩直接影响河西走廊水资源安全.本文旨在揭示冰川变化对流域水资源的影响.[方法]以河西走廊5 大内陆河为研究对象,采用耦合冰川模块的VIC模型,结合历次冰川编目、气象水文及CMIP6 多情景气候数据,开展冰川与融水径流模拟研究.[结果]耦合冰川模块的VIC模型在研究区适用性良好,率定期与验证期平均纳什效率系数(NSE)分别为0.80 和0.78;未来冰川整体呈退缩趋势,西段大型冰川退缩强度较高,东段小型冰川退缩过程相对平缓;冰川融水对径流的补给占比逐渐衰减;SSP5-8.5 情景下,冰川径流锐减,其水文调节功能快速衰退.[结论]研究结果揭示了河西走廊冰川-径流演变的空间差异与未来水资源风险,可为区域水资源优化配置与气候变化提供理论支撑.
[Purposes]Amid accelerating global warming,the sustained retreat of glaciers in the Qilian Mountains poses a direct and growing threat to water security in the Hexi Corridor.This study aims to reveal the impacts of glacier changes on regional water resources.[Methods]This study focuses on the five inland river basins of the Hexi Corridor,we integrated the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)hydrological model with an enhanced glacier mass-balance module,using glacier inventories,meteorological observations,streamflow measurements,and CMIP6 climate projections.Conduct simulation studies on glaciers and meltwater runoff.[Findings]The VIC model enhanced glacier mass-balance module demonstrates good applicability in the study area,with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)values of 0.80 during the prediction period and 0.78 during validation.Regional glaciers generally exhibit a retreat trend,with significant retreat intensity observed for large glaciers in the western section and relatively gradual shrinkage of smaller glaciers in the eastern section;the contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff is progressively declining.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,glacier runoff decreases sharply,leading to rapid deterioration of its hydrological regulation function.[Conclusions]The research findings reveal the spatial variations in glacial-runoff evolution within the Hexi Corridor and its implications for future water resource risks,providing insights that support optimal regional water resource allocation and climate change adaptation.
年,卷(期):
2026, (9)
分类号:
P208
机标分类号:
P467
S16
S27
在线出版日期:
2026年10月28日
基金项目:
:甘肃省水资源基础调查项目:甘肃省水资源基础调查项目202621:甘肃省自然资源厅科技创新项目,