Measurement and Driving Factors for Urban Economic Resilience Driven by Modern Services:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region
摘要
以往区域与城市经济韧性研究多以制造业为对象,多从区域经济整体视角进行总量测度,忽视了当前城市经济的核心驱动力——现代服务业.在全球经济不确定性加剧与中国高质量发展转型的双重背景下,将现代服务业纳入城市经济韧性分析框架具有重要的理论与政策价值.以长三角地区41 个城市为研究对象,本研究整合关系韧性理论视角与现代服务业特性,构建涵盖实体经济与现代服务业、内生演化与外部关联的四维分析框架,运用主成分分析和面板固定效应模型,测度2008-2023 年各城市经济韧性,探究其时空演化格局,并检验现代服务业内部结构的差异化韧性驱动因子.研究发现:1)长三角城市经济韧性呈现"沪宁双核引领、等级梯度协同、边缘地区滞后"的空间格局,内部差距存在先扩大后逐步收敛的趋势.2)现代服务业内部结构对经济韧性的影响存在显著功能分异,公共性服务业(即广泛涉及政府治理和制度能力)是当前塑造区域经济韧性的核心.3)韧性影响机制呈现梯度异质性:低韧性城市高度依赖政府赋能,中等韧性城市处于内生积累适应阶段,而高韧性城市以公共服务业为主导的演进路径.据此,本研究针对不同梯队城市提出因地制宜的分类施策路径,有效克服了传统演化视角忽视外部网络关联的局限,为综合理解现代服务业引领下区域经济韧性的机制外延与政策制定提供了科学参考.
Previous studies on regional and urban economic resilience have mainly focused on the manufacturing sector,mainly adopting aggregate indicators from a holistic regional economic lens.This approach,however,ignores the core driving force of modern urban economies:modern services.Against the dual background of rising global economic uncertainty and China's transition to high-quality develop-ment,integrating modern services into the analytical framework of urban economic resilience carries im-portant theoretical implications and practical policy value.Using 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)as case studies,this study combines the theoretical lens of relational resilience with the charac-teristics of modern services to establish a four-dimensional analytical framework covering the real econo-my,modern services,endogenous evolution and external linkages.Based on principal component analysis and a panel fixed-effects model,this study measures the economic resilience of the sampled cities from 2008 to 2023,investigates their spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns,and examines the differentiated driving factors of resilience underpinned by the internal structure of modern services.The results show that,1)urban economic resilience in the YRD presents a spatial pattern of"dual-core dominance of Shanghai and Nanjing,layered gradient coordination and underperforming peripheral areas",and intra-regional disparities show a trend of first expanding and then gradually narrowing.2)The impacts of the internal structure of modern services on economic resilience exhibit notable functional heterogeneity,in which public service-oriented sectors(primarily encompassing government governance and institutional capacity)act as the core driver shaping regional economic resilience at present.3)The influencing mechanisms of resilience show gradient heterogeneity:low-resilience cities rely heavily on government-enabled support,medium-resilience cities are in an adaptive stage of endogenous accumula-tion,and high-resilience cities follow an evolutionary path dominated by public services.Accordingly,this study puts forward targeted and context-specific policy pathways for cities at different levels.This re-search effectively addresses the limitations of traditional evolutionary perspectives that neglect external network linkages,and provides a scientific reference for fully understanding the mechanistic pathways and policy formulation of regional economic resilience driven by modern services.