Coupling Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Resilience and Efficiency in Resource-Based Cities
摘要
在当前高度不确定环境与高质量转型发展背景下,如何协同提升城市韧性与发展效率,统筹发展和安全,已成为资源型城市实现可持续安全转型发展的关键.选取 2009-2019 年全国地级资源型城市为研究对象,构建城市韧性与绿色发展效率指标评价体系并分析两者的耦合协调关系及时空演变特征,借助Tobit 回归模型识别影响两者耦合协调的关键因素.结果表明:1)资源型城市韧性水平显著提升,但绝对水平依然偏低,呈现出"再生型>成熟型>成长型>衰退型"的梯度格局,绿色发展效率呈现明显的"倒 N 型"波动,表现出"成长型>再生型>成熟型>衰退型"的分布特征.2)二者耦合协调度实现了由"广泛失调"向"初步协调"的整体跨越,空间上呈"东高西低、南强北弱"格局;"韧性—效率"组合与城市生命周期存在显著的结构分化,至研究末期"高韧性—低效率"组合占比最高,表明绿色发展效率滞后已成为制约多数资源型城市系统协同的主要瓶颈.3)第二产业比例与人口规模对二者耦合协调关系具有正向影响,而经济增长率和教育支出具有负向作用,不同类型资源型城市影响机制具有异质性特征.研究结果可为新发展阶段下推动资源型城市安全绿色转型发展提供决策参考.
Against the backdrop of a highly uncertain environment and high-quality transformative de-velopment,synergistically enhancing urban resilience and development efficiency while balancing secu-rity and development has become crucial for resource-based cities to achieve a sustainable and secure transition.Taking China's prefecture-level resource-based cities in China from 2009 to 2019 as the re-search object,this study constructs an evaluation index system for resilience and green development ef-ficiency,analyzes their coupling coordination relationship and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,and identifies the key factors influencing their coupling coordination using a Tobit regression model.The results indicate that:1)the resilience level of resource-based cities has significantly improved,though the absolute level remains relatively low,presenting a gradient pattern of"regenerating>mature>growing>declining".Meanwhile,the green development efficiency exhibits a distinct"in-verted N-shaped"fluctuation,showing a distribution pattern of"growing>regenerating>mature>declining".2)The coupling coordination degree between the two systems has achieved an overall leap from"widespread incoordination"to"preliminary coordination"presenting a spatial pattern of"higher in the east than in the west,and stronger in the south than in the north".The resilience and green de-velopment efficiency combinations and urban life cycles exhibit significant structural differentiation.By the end of the study period,the"high resilience-low efficiency"combination accounted for the highest proportion,indicating that lagging green development efficiency has become the primary bottleneck re-stricting the system synergy of most resource-based cities.3)The proportion of the secondary industry and population size exert positive impacts on the coupling coordination relationship,whereas the eco-nomic growth rate and educational expenditure exert negative effects.Furthermore,the driving mecha-nisms exhibit heterogeneity across different types of resource-based cities.These findings can provide policy insights and decision-making references for promoting the secure and green transformative development of resource-based cities in the new development stage.