CMIP6全球气候模式对安徽省降水变化的模拟评估与未来预估
Modeling and Projection of Precipitation Changes in Anhui Province:Based on CMIP6 Global Climate Model
摘要 随着全球气候逐渐变暖,安徽省在生态环境和水资源的变化尤为剧烈.结合目前对安徽省降水变化的演变规律的讨论存在不足,本研究将国家地面降水日值 0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(V2.0)作为观测数据,对1995-2014 年气候模式对安徽省降水变化的模拟能力进行评估,选择模拟性能较好的模式,并用多模式集合平均(MME)对未来2021-2100 年安徽省未来降水的时空演变进行预估,得出以下结论:1)多模式集合平均(MME)比单个模式的模拟能力更好,可用来预估未来降水的变化趋势;在进行偏差订正后,模式模拟的降水量普遍高于实际观测值.2)在未来情景下,排放情景越高,年降水量的增长趋势更快.相较于历史时期(1995-2014年),各情景下年降水的增长速率在近期最为缓慢,仅为0.47 mm·a-1,而在末期增幅最高为1.13 mm·a-1.四季降水的增长趋势总体表现为春季的降水增长率最快,冬季最慢.3)空间尺度上,未来安徽省年降水变化率最低值主要位于皖南.季节尺度上,春季降水变化率的高值中心主要位于皖南,夏季高值中心主要位于皖北,秋季3 种情景下前期和中期的降水增长率普遍较低,而末期降水增长率在全省范围内较高,冬季3 种情景下降水变化率均不同.
Abstract:
With the ongoing global climate warms,Anhui Province has experienced particularly dra-matic changes in its ecological environment and water resources.Given the current limited discussion on the evolution of precipitation patterns in the region,this study uses the national surface daily precipitation dataset(0.5°×0.5°,V2.0)as observational data to evaluate the performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating precipitation changes over Anhui Province from 1995 to 2014.Models with better simulation performance were selected,and the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)was em-ployed to project the spatiotemporal evolution of future precipitation from 2021 to 2100.The main findings are as follows,1)the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)has a better simulation ability than a single model and can be used to predict the future trend of precipitation changes.After bias correc-tion,the simulated precipitation is generally higher than the observed value.2)Under future scenarios,higher emission levels correspond to faster increases in annual precipitation.Compared with the historical period(1995-2014),the rate of increase is slowest in the near future(0.47 mm·a-1)and peaks in the late 21st century(1.13 mm·a-1).Seasonally,the increase in precipitation is fastest in spring and slowest in winter.3)Spatially,the lowest future annual precipitation change rates are concentrated in southern Anhui.On a seasonal scale,the highest spring change rates are also found in the south,while summer peaks occur in northern Anhui.In autumn,precipitation increases remain low during the early and middle future periods across all scenarios,but rise notably in the late period across the entire province.In winter,change rates vary significantly among scenarios.
年,卷(期): 2026, 21(4)
分类号: P467 S166
机标分类号: P467 P731.15 E919
在线出版日期: 2026年10月9日
基金项目: 2019QZKK010408:次青藏高原综合科考项目CXFZ2021Z010:中国气象局创新发展专项202203AC100005:云南省重点研发计划项目202203AC100006:云南省重点研发计划项目,