Evolution characteristics,mechanism and optimization path of China-ASEAN logistics synergy
摘要
RCEP落地实施和西部陆海新通道的持续推进,使中国与东盟的经贸往来加速,但是各国物流基础、产业水平存在较大差异,区域物流协同的短板逐渐显现出来.为了识别出 2012-2022年两国之间物流的演化规律,找出主要的影响因素,本文构建了多维物流评价指标体系,采用熵权复合耦合协调模型计算出国别、三大次区域和全域物流协同水平,用双对数面板固定效应模型检验各个要素的边际影响.结果显示:(1)中国-东盟全域物流耦合协调度由2012年的0.178上升到2022年的0.829,由严重失调变为良好协调;次区域发展分化明显,中泰缅组2018年达到0.847进入良好协调,中老越柬文莱组2022年0.849接近优质协调的门槛.(2)人均GDP、物流从业人口、路网规模、数字普及度等变量都会对协同度产生正向影响,政府财政支出的系数为负值-0.114,说明资金错配起到抑制作用.因此,本文从次区域差异化基建联通、统一跨境物流政策标准、优化财政资金配置、共建区域智慧物流体系等角度出发提出建议,以促进区域物流一体化的提升.
The implementation of RCEP and continuous construction of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor have boos-ted China-ASEAN trade,yet gaps in logistics infrastructure and industrial capacity across countries restrict regional logistics coordina-tion.To quantify the evolution of logistics synergy from 2012 to 2022 and identify core driving factors,this paper constructed a multi-dimensional logistics index system.The entropy weight-composite coupling coordination model was used to measure logistics synergy of individual countries,three sub-regions and the whole region,and a log-log panel fixed-effect model was applied to test marginal effects of influencing factors.The results showed that the overall coupling coordination degree rose from 0.178 to 0.829,shifting from severe imbalance to good coordination.The China-Thailand-Myanmar group reached good coordination at 0.847 in 2018,while the China-Brunei-Laos-Vietnam-Cambodia group hit 0.849 near the high-quality coordination threshold in 2022.Per capita GDP,logistics employment,transport network and digital penetration promoted synergy significantly,while government fiscal expenditure with coefficient-0.114 presented restraining effect due to unreasonable fund allocation.Targeted suggestions covering differentiated infra-structure construction,unified cross-border logistics standards,optimized fiscal investment and regional intelligent logistics platforms were proposed to advance integrated regional logistics development.